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Electric Load Forecasting: Advanced Topics and Case Studies

Course Details
Code: BELFADV
Tuition (USD): $825.00 • Classroom (1 day)
Course Details
GSA (USD): $748.11 • Classroom (1 day)

This hands-on workshop is open to those who attended the Electric Load Forecasting: Fundamentals and Best Practices course. This course includes lecture and hands-on lab exercises that explore advanced topics in electric load forecasting.

Skills Gained

  • perform time series cross validation
  • select weather stations
  • detect outliers and cleanse data
  • use comprehensive temperature information
  • combine forecasts.

Who Can Benefit

  • Load/price forecasters, energy traders, quantitative/business analysts in the utility industry, power system planners, power system operators, load research analysts, and rate design analysts

Prerequisites

  • Before attending this course, you must attend the Electric Load Forecasting: Fundamentals and Best Practices course.

Course Details

Out of Sample Tests

  • error analysis
  • cross validation
  • sliding simulation

Weather Station Selection

  • two fundamental questions
  • a common method
  • unconstrained weather station selection
  • seven-step implementation

Outlier Detection and Data Cleansing

  • definitions of outlier
  • three examples
  • hidden outlier
  • a modeling approach to outlier detection and data cleansing

More about Recency Effect

  • how many lagged temperatures can we afford?
  • "optimal" combination of lagged and average temperatures
  • recency effect in hierarchical load forecasting
  • search algorithms for recency effect modeling

Combining Forecasts

  • motivation
  • forecast combination methods
  • practical considerations

Case Studies (computer lab session)

  • cross validation
  • weather station selection
  • outlier detection and data cleansing
  • recency effect modeling
  • forecast combination

Emerging Topics (optional)

  • grouping and clustering methods
  • ARIMA models for electric load forecasting
  • probabilistic electric load forecasting
  • other emerging topics